I thought you would!
So what is it? I don't know if it means that he was aware of and prevented a crisis in advance, or that he had previously known how to solve the problem and had to wait until the problem occurred.
Current economic analysis is seen immediately as the collection of real-time data, but the impact of the action (including economic policy: all measures including decision making) in the real-time market due to the occurrence of data and the time gapGAP. That is, it is not working.
For example, if you are planning to travel abroad in a few days, when should you exchange money? A few days have shown that the exchange rate is falling, but the exchange rate is postponed to a reasonable conclusion that it will fall further tomorrow, but you may have experienced a rebound in activity on that day. Why do we believe we are making rational judgments, but the results do not have the best results?
That is because future uncertainties are not included in economic decision making. The lack of a probability of thinking about future uncertainties is recognizing the current decision as a loss.
But experts' predictions are, if not, accurate. Right or wrong.
It is probably a typical error of hindsight that matches the results of Google's search and actual election results. It's the process of creating a process with results.When asked how they came up with such results, they do not disclose it as my own secret. It is a rebuttal of scientific and objective lack of purpose. It is not clear whether the next election result was right, either. Such a story is that people in the academic circle, which should be based on scientific and objective thinking, have come to an end as a means to get public attention. I think it is no different from an octopus at a zoo that predicts the outcome of a soccer game in the World Cup.
Correlation is not causative. The public cannot tell the difference between correlation and causality, and is enthusiastic about these issues. There are also many merchants who used the art of writing books to make money.
Why are you crazy about hindsight?
This is because the results are clear. Clear facts are easy to describe and are based on definitive judgments. However, attempts to resolve future uncertainty due to hindsight-based terminology have many potential errors. A case in point is the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The revolution is a typical hindsight. It can be called a revolution if an event occurred at some point in history and it caused a devastating change in society, culture and economy. "There will be a very drastic change in the future," said futurist Alvin Toffler. (My father, who has just returned, has always said that tomorrow will be better than today.) But it is very difficult to predict tomorrow's revolution with the current level of technological development and the speed at which it is going.
Steve(JongMyoung) Park, Ph.D.
Ph.D. in Business Administration
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